Monday, May 18, 2009

Honey We just had our FIRST UPPER CIRCUIT!!!!

History is made today at the Indian bourses when we hit the upper circuit; First time ever!!!

The markets gave resounding thumbs up to the newly elected parliament. But what next? Is it the time to jump in? Perhaps no, see what’s happened today is just one off event, sorts of celebration. Celebration of what? Celebration in anticipation of that all things good will happen henceforth!



I feel this is how the bubbles are created; nothing will change immediately with this one circuit. It just wont make any sense if you feel you have missed the bus (remember the rules about the buses if u miss one there’s always one coming around from the corner!). After today’s action or perhaps if this irrational exuberance does continue for the next couple of days, we would be back to what we call Reversion to the Mean. Yes internal factors play an important role but let us also not forget we are a part of one big family; the World! So we need to keep into mind the global cues. We have got a headstart but if the global cues aren’t supportive we might just have to follow them! This is one massive gap up we have created today; surely it would be nice seeing it get filled. Wishful thinking eh?


6 comments:

Sunil Saranjame said...

Good one Manoj!

ss :)

Tryin2Trade said...

SS Hi,

Yeah Like you said "This is our Black Swan!"

Boy this has surely warped the technical charts for now!!!

Crazzzyyy!

ss hari said...

major problem is squaring up of short positions in futures segment.vertical rise in other stocks is herd not sustainable unless volumes stabilise to sensible average levels.kindly advise what a small investor should do so that he does not ride the wrong route bus.your blog is highly intutive.regards.

Tryin2Trade said...

SS Hari Hi,

Thanks u liked the blog but let me make it clear to you that I am also one of ya tribe.

This blog is nothin but stupid stuff I write and i find interesting!

As regards to what I think what an investor(including me) should do; is to stay on the sidelines.

This is classic case where we can put Warren Buffet's advice to practice " Be fearful when others are greedy and be Greedy when others are Fearful"!

Mkts are frozen no;so no point in jumping in. Price discovery will only come once we are out of this euphoric state!

So wait!

PS:Like I mentioned these are my insane ramblings, I still feel you would be better off taking some pro advice; coz Pro I am not!

Cheers!

Unknown said...

Hi Manoj

as usually nice said u rock man...

cheers!!!
mayur

Shiree said...

Irrational exuberance.