Sunday, May 4, 2008

How to make money in bear market?



I received the following article today in my mail. It’s a nicely written piece, so I thought let me share it with all of you.

Everyone loves bull markets. In a bull market, every stock will give us good returns. But bear markets test one's real ability, company's fundamentals and investor's patience levels. But Bear markets also provide wonderful investment opportunities if we can able to spot investment chances early. We can make good money in very short term period.

2 types of investment strategies in bear market:

1. Accumulate more on every fall and invest for long term to reap full benefits. Even good stocks will be available at cheap prices in bear market due to bad sentiment.

2. Ultra
short term opportunities. You should always be on alert to utilise these chances. If you enter late, losses will be more as it happened in case of Orchid chemicals investors who entered into that stock at above 300 levels.

Alert: Operators will try to fool investors by artificially rising stock prices by spreading rumours. Be careful with stocks like Ispat, RNRL, IFCI and Essar Oil. If don't have enough knowledge on Stock Markets, stay away from these things. If you are a long term investor, don't buy major stocks at current levels.

Bear markets- best money making opportunities:

1.
Over reaction: When L&T announced minor losses in Forex derivatives, everyone sold it despite strong fundamentals of the comapny. We should see for such opportunities to enter into those stocks.

2.
Sudden options: Orchid chemicals suddenly lost 50% value despite no change in fundamentals. That was due to Bear sterns sell off. We should be always on alert for such chances.

3.
Over enthusiasm: Markets over reacted to open offer and acquisition rumours and took stock price to unreasonable 350 levels. Even if Ranbaxy take over Orchids, 250-280 is reasonable price. We will look for short selling opportunities in such instances.

4.
Buyback offers: In a bear markets, prices generally do not justify its intrinsic value. So companies try to buy back shares at higher prices. Just see what happened in Sasken Communications. Look for good buy back offers.

5.
Never chase operators: If a stock is rising without any reason, simply stay away from such stocks. It is due to operators activities. Never invest in any stock basing on rumours.

6.
Crucial breaks: Some decisions will change company fundamentals to much attractive levels. In these instances, stock price will rise for prolonged period as it happened in Bombay Dyeing.

7. Rallies in bear market generally will not last for prolonged periods. So, make money in
short term and exit that stock.

8.
Short term opportunities will be available in stocks that lost more than 50% in a short period despite good growth. We should identify them early before markets recognise them as it happened in ICSA India and Gujarat NRE Coke.

Investors can't sit idle in bear markets as investors over react to bad news and stocks will lose all the gains in 1-2 days. These ultra
short term opportunities are only for experienced investors who can spend enough time on stock market research and at trading terminal. More companies are planning to buy back shares means we are going to get investment chances to make quick money.

1 comment:

michale wong said...

I rely on Intraday SGX Signals in the bear market as well as bullish market.