Tuesday, January 25, 2011

CNX 500 Views!!!

Almost a week since my last update, but then I have decided to take things lil easy. Market has not shown signs of a major reversal to the upside yet….we may say we might bounce back and we may give a thousand reasons why we would tank or why we would not tank, but for a technical trader, he just has his chart a few intelligent interpretations of a few probabilities, and then he has his final weapon; THE STOP! That’s all about trading technicals….belief in your charts, conviction in your analysis, courage to follow your convictions and finally admit if and when you are wrong, the stop takes care of the last part!

 What you see above is a daily chart of CNX 500, a much broader index than Nifty. As you can see that it’s already below the 200 periods MA and tryin2reclaim it! Yeah Nifty is trading above the 200 so far…but then if you look at your other major indexes, most of them are trading below the 200, barring the IT index. So the big question is; Nifty above 200 periods MA when all other indices are trading below 200, is an anomaly???.

An oversold bounce from here is always a possibility, but for any signs of trend reversal, I would rather wait for the “old school” lesson; I would want to see a higher low to begin with and then perhaps a Higher High!!!

Till then one can trade swings based on hourly charts and make sure you are kinda strict with you stops!

Btw I just remembered a song; Que Sera Sera…whatever will be will be…the future is not ours to see…Que Sera Sera!!!

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Subex Views!!!

Below is the chart of Subex, something a friend wanted me to see. He is impressed with fundas and wants to play it for like 6 months to begin with. A brief technical analysis of the weekly chart to your left…a kinda hope for the inverse CnH (just a hope, no confirmations yet)! Price just nearabout the weekly 20/50 periods moving averages, anything between them is a value buy technically.

Looking at the daily chart above to your right we see a triangle threatening to break down and perhaps head for the 200 periods below. If I were to play this purely on fundamentals then I would buy a few here (60/65 range) and add more on declines. For purely a technical trade, one needs to either wait for pattern confirmations (depending on whichever chart weekly or daily you are trading) or buy near the MA’s with a very tight stop and play for +5% gains. Its always prudent too wait for the right entry rather than being trigger happy!!!

DLF...An Example Of Hidden Negative Divergence!!!

This is purely an academic post of a setup that’s already been spent! I am a person who likes to trade divergences now and then; shuffling through my charts I came across DLF, which made a beautiful Hidden Negative Divergence. Look at the shaded area and you will see while the price made a lower high, all the three indicators made a higher high, the price also confirmed by failing to hold on the MA breakout and reversed.

Having discussed what’s already happened let’s see if we have any trade in DLF, if you compress your charts to show two years of data you will see that DLF is at important demand area which has held out quite a few number of times. Also with the MACD showing some positive divergence and the indicators making small double bottoms, a very low risk buying opportunity is to buy now (250/55) with a stop near 240/245 or a better trade is to play safe and buy if it breaks above 258/60 for a target of 290/300!!!

Monday, January 17, 2011

Financial Technologies Views!!!

I am writing after a long, long, and still long time…lil busy with LIFE!...actually some personal things needed immediate attention….and no I didn’t burnout myself trading!!!

Sorry for disappointing a lot of readers and thanks to all those folks who called and mailed inquiring about me…touched…never knew I would be missed…

Anyways back to what I like to do…Charting!!!

Below is the chart of Financial Technologies, a scrip, I like to get into now, and maybe build up a position further on the dips. Read about the company here and here!

Below are the weekly and the daily charts of FINTECH…The weekly chart to your left shows a bit of a stalling of the fall…a place where it would be called in technical parlance “old resi turns to supports”, need less to remind here that when it comes to the crazy market behavior all these supports and resi’s go for a toss! Well the chart is a bull’s nightmare…all the three key weekly moving averages are above the price…infact I feel there is a case for mean reversion here. The price needs t either jump up here…a kinda spike, or perhaps move sideways so that to enable the nearest MA to catch up with it.

Moving towards the daily chart to your right, we can see an inside day…a simple trade, for people who trade such set ups. The divergence (positive) is too obvious so one can’t miss it. Another important point to be noticed is that volumes have not really picked up during the fall so I guess all is well with the stock…no panic yet.

 I am going to buy this as positional and not for trading…

Enuff of writing for a single post…guess getting a lil rustic here…will pick up my tempo soon!!!