Thursday, October 30, 2008

Nifty Recap For The Day!!!

This is my first post this week since the last weekend views one, where I had mentioned that 2250/2300 was a support of sorts and would likely stall there and maybe even pullback. Well we did make a low of 2252 on Monday and staged a pullback. Deepawali muhurat trading was also positive and with the best of global cues, a rally is indeed in the making. I would say this is more of confluence at play rather than divergence.

A quick look at the daily chart to see where we stand as of now… Yes! We have a nice little Kangaroos tail (Hammer in the oriental charts) for ourselves to be content with, but a word of caution any slide below 2500 would mean that we are going to eat into the tail and would just signal an immediate threat to test the LOWS! The nearest MA; the 20 periods is way too far away at 3250, the price needs to really rally hard if at all it needs to make contact with it or at least make some range bound moves so that the MA is bought down lower where a comfortable crossover can be attempted! We have a LL in place but to have a HH, we need to close above 3250. Since this is the time where we should take step by step approach to things, Nifty has to conquer 2920/50 before we make any assumptions where this rally or pullback is going to take us. I have shaded the price range on the chart marked as rumble in the box which needs to be watched!

The intraday action as encapsulated by the hourly chart, shows that the price has stalled at the 20 periods MA (the green line) and our initial lower channel line (dashed line) and now is aiming for the 50 period MA which is incidentally near 2890/2900 levels, where as any retracement should take it back to 2525/50 and anything below 2450 would jeopardize this whole pull back thingie!!! So enjoy till it lasts! Amen!!!

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Weekend Views On Nifty!!!

What a week that went by, full of misery and sorrow for some and full of hope and opportunities for others…it’s just the way we look at things, nevertheless a very challenging week from the point of view of the Technical Analyst. A week where the market humbled all and sundry, a week where all the attempts to alter its direction (news on Interest Rates, Short Sales Ban etc!), were thwarted by a more vicious slide. This was the message that Markets are supreme and any attempts to interfere with the free functioning of it are not welcome. Price action as they say is the universal TRUTH and shall remain so till Kingdome come.

The Weekly Picture;

The chart above of Nifty shows that we have now retraced more than 61.8% of our primary Bull Run starting from early 2003 to our peak on January 2008. I am nowadays even scared to guess the supports (every time I tried it in last week it was a humbling experience), but what the heck I need to do what I am learning2do (yeah still tryin2b a trader), so coming back to supports, the only hope in this abyss is at 2300/2250 and then 2000. Where as any up move now will be severely tested at 2650/2850 and 3000.

The Daily Drama;

The daily chart above isn’t much different from the weekly, we are below our channel, and the MACD is at abysmally levels. The closest moving average; the 20 periods is far far away. We need to stall here for the MA to catch up with the price. The only solace (Hope! Remember the buzzword!) , that the ADX is again above 50. The last time it was at those levels (see the shaded areas on the chart) we paused and broke the fall and even had ourselves a pretty good pullback rally! History repeats itself…well I didn’t write this…wishful thinking…why not!

The Hourly Break;

The hourly chart above is waiting for the confirmation of the lower low. No signal from the MACD, this is the only timeframe where we seem to be at least reaching out to the 20 periods MA only to be spurned by it. If the lows hold then the hourly chart is giving a HOPE of 2650 and 2700 for starters. Again no supports visible here too!

Incidentally we have the festival Diwali on Tuesday and the events in the markets in the last few days have left a bad taste for most of the people. The mood is a bit somber but the SPIRIT to celebrate prevails. Let’s look at the positive side of all this capitulation (as some prefer to call it), the price at what some of the real good scrips are available is nothing short of what we otherwise would have called as THE GREAT DIWALI SALE!!! Yes if you have funds to invest with good holding period this is the time to buy in tranches. Remember the legendary Warren Buffet also suggest buy when you see good companies at .50 of their book value, well many are quoting at those values now.

Wishing You All A very Happy And Prosperous Diwali And May God Bless Us All!!!

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than un-rewarded talent. Education will not: the world is full of educated failures. Persistence is omnipotent...Calvin Coolidge

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Ilango..My Friend..This One's For You!!!

I really wanted make this post a little brief, but then I thought I won’t do justice to the original work. Many of you might find it a bit boring and long but do spare some time and read!

Hymn to Money

Ayn Rand

Must Give Value for Value

So you think that money is the root of all evil. Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can't exist unless there are goods produced, and there are men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must do so by trade, and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or of the looters, who take it from you by force. Only men who produce make money possible. Is this what you consider evil?

Neither an ocean of tears nor all the guns in the world can transform those pieces of paper in your wallet into bread you will need to survive tomorrow. Those pieces of paper, which should really be gold, are a token of honor - your claim upon the energy of the men who produce. Your wallet is your statement of hope that somewhere in the world around you there are men who will not default on the moral principle that is the root of money. Is this what you consider evil?

Wealth Is the Product of Man's Capacity to Think

Have you ever looked for the root of production? Take a look at an electric motor and dare tell yourself that it was created by the muscular effort of unthinking brutes. Try to grow a seed of wheat without the knowledge left to you by men who had to discover how to do it for the first time. Try to grow food by means of nothing but physical motions - and you'll learn that it is man's mind that is the root of all the goods produced and of all the wealth that has ever existed on earth.

But you say that money is made by the strong at the expense of the weak. What strength do you mean? It is not the strength of guns or muscles. Wealth is the product of man's capacity to think. Does it follow, then, that money made by the inventor of the motor is at the expense of others who invented nothing? Is money made by the intelligent at the expense of the fools? Or by the able, at the expense of the lazy? Money is made - before it can be looted or mooched - by the effort of every honest man, each to the extent of his ability. An honest man is one who knows that he can't consume more than he has produced.

Every Man is the Owner of His Mind and His Efforts

To trade by means of money is the code of men of good will. Money rests on the axiom that every man is the owner of his mind and his efforts. Money allows no power to prescribe the value of your effort, except by the voluntary choice of the man who is willing to exchange the fruits of his effort with you. Money permits you to obtain for your goods and labor what they are worth to men who buy them, but no more. Money permits no deals except those to mutual benefit by the free judgment of traders. Money demands of you the recognition that men must work for their own benefit, not their injury; for their gain, not their loss - the recognition that they are not beasts of burden born to carry the weight of your misery - that you must offer them value, not wounds - that the common bond among men is not the exchange of suffering, but the exchange of goods. Money demands that you sell, not your weakness to men's stupidity, but your talent to their reason; it demands that you buy, not the shoddiest they have to offer, but the best money can find. And when men live by trade - with reason, not force, as their final arbiter - it is the best product that wins, and the best performance. It is the man of best judgment and highest ability that wins, and his reward is commensurate with his productivity. This is the code of coexistence whose tool and symbol is money. Is this what you consider evil?

The Scourge of Men Who Attempt to Reverse the Law of Causality

But money is only a tool. It will take you wherever you wish, but will not replace you as the driver. It will give you the means for the satisfaction of your desires, but will not provide you with desires. Money is the scourge of men who attempt to reverse the law of causality - men who seek to replace the mind by seizing the products of the mind.

Money will not purchase happiness for the man who has no concept of what he wants. Money will not give him a code of values if he's evaded the knowledge of what to value. It will not provide him with a purpose if he's evaded the choice of what to seek. Money will not buy intelligence for the fool, admiration for the coward, or respect for the incompetent. The man who attempts to purchase the brains of his superiors to serve him, thus trying to replace judgment with money, ends up by becoming the victim of his inferiors. The men of intelligence desert him, but the cheats and frauds come flocking to him, drawn by a law which he has not discovered, that no man may be smaller than his money. Is this the reason why you call it evil?

Money Will Not Serve the Mind That Cannot Match It

Only the man who does not need it, is fit to inherit wealth - the man who would make his own fortune no matter where he started. If an heir is equal to his money, it serves him; if not, it destroys him. But you look on and cry that money has corrupted him. Has it? Or has he corrupted money? Do not envy a worthless heir: his wealth is not yours and you would have done no better with it. Do not think that it should have been distributed among your cronies: loading the world with fifty parasites instead of one would not bring back the dead virtue embodied by the fortune. Money is a living power that dies without its root. Money will not serve the mind that cannot match it. Is this the reason why you call it evil?

Money As a Means of Survival

Money is your means of survival. The verdict you pronounce upon the source of your livelihood is the verdict you pronounce upon your life. If the source is corrupt, you have damned your own existence. Did you get your money by fraud? By pandering to men's vices or their stupidity? By catering to fools, in the hope of getting more than you deserve? By lowering your standards? By doing work you despise, for others you scorn? If so, then your money will not give you a moment's joy or a penny's worth of happiness. Then all the things you buy will become, not a tribute to you but a reproach; not an achievement but a reminder of shame. Then you'll scream that money is evil. Evil, because it will not pander to your self-respect? Evil, because it would not let you enjoy your depravity? Is this the root of your hatred of money?

Money Is Always an Effect with You As the Cause

Money will always remain an effect and refuse to replace you as the cause. Money is the product of virtue, but it will not give you virtue and will not redeem your vices. Money will not give you the unearned, whether in matter or in spirit. Is this the root of your hatred of money?

Or do you mean that it's the love of money that's the root of all evil? To love a thing is to know and love its nature. To love money is to know and love the fact that money is the product of the best powers within you, and your pass-key to trade your effort for the efforts of the very best among men. It's the person who would sell his soul for a nickel, who is the loudest in proclaiming his hatred of money - and he has good reason to hate it, too. The lovers of money are willing to work for it. They know that they deserve it. Let me give you this rule of thumb: the man who damns money has obtained it dishonorably; the man who respects it has earned it.

The Only Substitute for Gold Money is the Muzzle of the Gun

Run for your life from anyone who tells you that money is evil. That sentence is the leper's bell of an approaching looter. So long as men live together on earth and need means to deal with one another - their only substitute, if they abandon money, is the muzzle of the gun.

When Coercion Is the Standard, Murderers Win over Pickpockets

But money demands of you the highest virtue, if you wish to make it or keep it. Men who have no courage, pride, or self-esteem, men who have no moral sense of their right to their money, and are not willing to defend it as they would defend their life, men who apologize for being rich - will not remain rich for long. They are the natural bait for swarms of looters that stay under the rocks for centuries, but come crawling out at the first smell of a man who begs to be forgiven for the guilt of owning wealth. They will hasten to relieve him of his guilt, and of his life - just as he deserves.

Then you see the rise of men of a double standard - men who live by force yet count on those who live by trade to create value to back their looted money - hitch-hikers of virtue. In a moral society these are criminals, and statues are written to protect you against them. But when a society establishes criminals-by-right and looters-by-law - men who use force to seize the wealth of disarmed victims - then money becomes its creator's avenger. Such looters believe it safe to rob defenseless men, once they've passed a law to disarm them. But their loot becomes the magnet for other looters who get it from them the way they've got it from you. Then the race gets under way, and the prize goes, not to the ablest at production, but to the most ruthless at brutality. When coercion is the standard, the murderer wins over the pickpocket. And then society vanishes in a spread of ruin and slaughter.

Money Is the Barometer of Society's Virtue

Do you want to know whether that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of society's virtue. When you see that trading is done not by consent but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal not in goods but in favors - when you see that men get rich more easily by graft than by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - then you will know that your society is doomed. Gold is so noble a medium that it does not compete with guns and does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half property, half loot.

Paper Money Is Mortgage on Wealth That Doesn't Exist

Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying gold money, for it is man's protection, and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold is an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper money is mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by guns aimed at those who are expected to produce. Paper money is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: "account overdrawn".

When you have made evil the means of survival, do not expect men to remain good. Do not expect them to stay moral and to become fodder for the immoral. Do not expect them to produce when production is punished and looting rewarded. Do not ask who is destroying the world. You are.

Where Wealth Is Obtained by Conquest There Is Little to Conquer

You stand in the midst of the greatest achievements of the greatest productive civilization and you wonder why it's crumbling around you while you are damning its life-blood - money. Throughout man's history money was always seized by looters of one brand or another, whose names changed, but whose methods remained the same: to seize wealth by force and to keep the producers bound, demeaned, defamed, deprived of honor. That phrase about the evil of money which you mouth with such righteous recklessness, comes from a time when wealth was produced by the labor of slaves - slaves who repeated motions discovered long before by someone's mind and left unimproved for centuries. So long as production is ruled by force and wealth is obtained by conquest, there is little to conquer. Yet through all the centuries of stagnation and starvation, men exalted the looters as aristocrats of the sword, as aristocrats of birth, as aristocrats of the bureau, and despised producers as slaves, as traders, as shopkeepers - as industrialists.

The Country of Money

To the glory of mankind there was, for the first and only time in history, a country of money - and I have no higher, more reverent tribute to pay to America, for this means: a country of reason, justice, freedom, production, achievement. For the first time man's mind and money were set free, and there were no fortunes-by-conquest but only fortunes-by-work, and instead of swordsmen and slaves there appeared the real maker of wealth, the greatest worker, the highest type of human being - the self-made man - the American industrialist.

The Essence of Morality

If you ask me to name the proudest distinction of Americans, I would choose - because it contains all the others - the fact that they were the people who created the phrase "to make money". No other language or nation has ever used this combination of words before; men have always thought of wealth as a static quantity - to be seized, begged, inherited, shared, looted, or obtained as a favor. Americans were the first to understand that wealth must be created. The phrase "to make money" holds the essence of morality.

Yet these were words for which the Americans were denounced by the rotten cultures of the looters' continents. Now the looters' credo has brought you to regard your proudest achievements as a hallmark of shame, your prosperity as guilt, your greatest men, the industrialists, as blackguards, and your magnificent factories as the product and property of muscular labor, the labor of whip-driven slaves, no better than the pyramids of Egypt. The rotter who simpers that he sees no difference between the power of gold and the power of the whip, ought to learn the difference on his own hide - as I think he will.

Blood, Whips, and Guns - or Gold

Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to be the tool by which men deal with one another, men become the tools of men. Blood, whips, and guns - or gold. Take your choice - there is no other - and your time is running out.

Thursday, October 23, 2008


The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader.

We, who live by values, not by loot, are traders, both in manner and in spirit.

A trader is a person who earns what he gets and does not give or take undeserved.

A trader does not ask to be paid for his failure; he does not ask to be loved for his flaws.

A trader does not squander his/her body as fodder, or his/her soul as alms.

Just as he/she does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he/she

does not give the values of his spirit –- his/her love, his/her friendship, his/her esteem-

– except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his/her own

selfish pleasures, which he/she receives from people he can respect.

The mystic parasites that have, throughout the ages, reviled the trader and held him in contempt, while honouring beggars and looters, have known the secret motive of their sneers:

A Trader is an entity they dread –- a man of justice.

-- Ayn Rand

Monday, October 20, 2008

Nifty Recap For The Day!!!

Like I had mentioned in my post yesterday that one can go long with a tight stop at 3050 for a target off 3225/50. Well with so much of volatility around we did manage a high of 3238 before giving up all the gains. Any up move is met with fresh selling and all excuses to squeeze whatever intra day gains are there to be had. Nobody wants to take chances of taking home some heavy line as the previous huge gap ups and downs are still playing games with traders’ minds.

Anyway a quick recap of today’s daily chart given below, we can see that Nifty found resistance at the channel line (lower) and quietly retreated back. We have an Inside Bar (IB), and the only way to play it is, as it ought to be played; that is go long or short on the breach of the high or the low of the IB!

The hourly chart below shows that the price is contracting within the channel lines (thick black lines) but also seem to be forming a falling wedge as marked in red dashed lines. As expected the price met with resistance at the falling 20 period MA and retreated. In this process we have made a lower high and a higher low for ourselves as of now. This means...yes a kind of contraction (if u remember your patterns you will agree with me that LL’s and HL’s are normally a prelude to triangles and wedges) and a breakout in any direction is imminent. Once again 3225/50 is of paramount importance before we even begin to think of anything big in terms of upside targets.

"If it is to be it is up to me."

Origin Unknown

Nifty Future..During the Day!!!

Is it my Illusion or Reality? Am I just being a victim of my Biases???

Weekend Views On Nifty!!!

I was getting to nervous with the markets and then a god sent opportunity came up … a weekend getaway to Goa with the kids! It was nice to soak in the sun and surf and tryin2keep my mind off the markets for a while. Now back refreshed albeit still confused about the whole issue regarding where’s the support? Normally these kinds of falls used to be termed as capitulation and were max for a day or two but this thing is turning into a slow and painful process. This reminds me of an example what Dr. Alexander Elder had mentioned in one of his books about how you can BOIL A FROG ALIVE!

Anyway moving on to the weekly chart below we can see Nifty has closed below the channel. The only support below is 2880 where as the first overhead resistance is at 3250. The MACD is still in triple bullish divergence and gets confirmed when Price closes above the previous week’s High (wishful thinking!)

The daily chart below is even more confusing with its Hammers and Tongs…. Tongs part is a bit of an exaggeration! And speaking of Hammers, the less said the better, off late they are providing false hope of reversal to the Bulls only to be hammered again by the Bears. The price is below the channel, we have two LL’s in place with a tennie weenie LH in between. Again I repeat we are trading too way down below the 20 period MA and a pullback to it so far has been very unsuccessful. Another LH will complete the pair for a new move down or if we close above the previous LH we can safely assume that trend for the short term has reversed ( I guess I am seeing mirages and illusions!) and I should be excused coz like I always say that Hope Lies Eternal In A Bulls Heart!

The intra day action summarized below in the hourly chart is a clearer picture of the LL’s and HL,s I have been talking about. This also shows how the price has been reacting to the falling 20 periods MA. We have a small divergence in MACD histogram, if we trade above 3100 for some time we can safely go long with a strict stop at 3050 to a target of 3225/3250 for starters.

"Action may not always bring happiness; but there is no happiness without action."

Benjamin Disraeli

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Nifty Recap For The Day!

It ain’t over till it’s over, the bottom is not yet confirmed, and whatever quick pullbacks that are offered, be it the courtesy of the oversold indicators or overseas cues are promptly met with more short selling. Nothing seems to be working, the bailouts, the regulations, not even the PRAYING!

Like I had mentioned yesterday that it’s very difficult to find supports and only supports which I could see were in hourly charts at 3400 and 3325 and we just went there. Now all hopes are on 3250 (the channel support) and 3200 (protecting the earlier lows and trying to make a double bottom for now….wishful thinking! Any takers???). As for the upside we need to talk a resistance one at a time, how about 3450 and 3550 for starters!

"You may be disappointed if you fail, but you are doomed if you don't try."

Beverly Sills

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Nifty Recap For the Day!!!

When the going gets good the smart book profits! Well this is what happened today. The rally yesterday gave impressive returns to the patient few who had used the earlier dip to buy into strong scrips and it warranted to take the money off the table at least a part of it (The Gambler by Kenny one such advice..Enjoy!). Like I had mentioned on my post on Sunday that rally was in the making considering the oversold nature of the charts (of course the backdoor maneuvers of the various governments also helped), and voila we had ourselves a beautiful long green candle yesterday.

Speaking of today, the daily chart below shows a shooting star, signifying that many a trader wanted to book the instant profits that were a god sent opportunity in these troubled times, cant really blame them, for the way we have been gapping up and down crazily, its wiser to take in as much as you can. We are still way below the falling 20 period MA at 3880, a logical target for this up move to say the least. Talking of supports there is none other than protecting yesterday’s low, which also happens to be the channel support!

Moving on to the hourly chart, we can see that the price met with severe resistance at the falling 50 periods MA (the blue line) and has closed near the 20 periods (the green line). The support on the hourly charts is at 3400 and 3325, whereas any move up needs to surpass 3600 and 3650 to get the bulls back into any kind of reckoning!

"Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm."

Ralph Waldo Emerson

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Weekend Views On Nifty!!!

Been a little busy with my business, hence couldn’t update the blog for some time. I am into the business of selling flowers (Wholesale) and the time for me to make my bread and butter for the entire year is from September till February end! Anyway that was about me, and now let’s talks about the market; the last week has been a nerve wrecking one, it has not only destroyed the wealth of the investors but more sinister effect has been on their psyche. This will take a lot of time to heal and should also serve as a very good lesson on market mechanics for times to come. Once again it has been a humbling experience and I presume will make a few of us wiser (those who choose to learn from History) and for the people who tend to forget things quickly they shall be condemned to suffer again.

We as usual begin by looking at the weekly chart and see what the broader picture looks like. We are moving down very nicely inside the falling channel and seem to have taken a support there; a breather or maybe as some might describe it as a brief stopover. The indicators are highly oversold and warrant a quick pullback. The MACD histogram is showing a good bullish divergence (so far so good) and nice rally to 3550/3800 is not ruled out. As for the downside I shudder to comment on supports because every support so far has just plopped, but a safe guess can be the 2006 lows at 2890 which might break the fall. It might not do it for technical reasons, maybe for psychological reasons! Any way I have inlayed my weekly chart with a scarier picture (scary! It aint scary anymore since we all have become comfortably numb!)

This brings us to the daily chart; the price as drifted too far apart from the moving averages and should pullback to align with them. This can be achieved in two ways; either the price makes a sharp pullback and tries to kiss the 20 periods MA or at least make some sideways movements and let the MA come near its vicinity. ADX is showing good strength and with +DI below the –DI there isn’t much to say. Again I repeat there isn’t much we can guess about the supports and as regards to the resistance, we have had so many gaps lately that the overhead path is strewn with these gaps providing solid string of resistances.

The hourly chart below presents a more microscopic view of Nifty. A very nice illustration of pivot play; LL’s and HL’s, it is also observed that right through the last few days we have been consistently trying to pullback and try and kiss the falling 20 period MA (the green line). Therefore in all probability if manage to surpass this hurdle tomorrow we may have some good up move for us.

I am not particularly in favor of day trading (the reason is personal because I have often been very uncomfortable with it) but presently day trading looks like the only thing to do. With so much of news (muck) floating around it’s becoming increasingly difficult to hold on to your swings or your beliefs or for that matter your SANITY!

Sunday, October 5, 2008


SBI is another stock which carries good weightage in Nifty and if this performs well (and ONGC giving the push) then we can still stall the fall in Nifty without worrying about the performance of RIL.

How much ever I want to believe in the inverse H&S on the weekly chart below I won’t be convinced till it breaks above 1600 and closes above that. The shaded area on the chart resembles a small double top and break of 1300 might not augur well for SBI (1300 to 1600 has been the range for it for some time now).

The daily chart below(on the right) corroborates the above view, but what makes the SBI the favorite among traders is the RS chart (on the left) which shows that SBI has been pretty strong vis a vis the index!

"Mistakes are the usual bridge between inexperience and wisdom."

Phyllis Theroux


RIL has been really underperforming and Nifty can’t do much without it. The weekly chart below shows the price has broken the lower channel line and closed below it. Anything which can be called a support is now at 1625/1650 level. Once again here also we have a nice triple bullish divergence happening on the MACD histogram. The weekly trend should change if we start trading above 1985 and a breakout will be signaled on the break of 2135!

The daily chart also shows some kind of exhaustion, the prices are way below the moving averages, a pullback not ruled out (MACD histogram showing a positive divergence). The last volume bar is a cause of concern though; a buy can be initiated above 1800 with a stop of 1750 for a target of 1900/1950!

"Our greatest joy is not in ever falling, but in rising every time we fall."



ICICI BANK has been a much battered stock off late and rumors were flying thick and fast that this might be our first casualty in India courtesy sub prime fiasco! Well I don’t know the inside story but lets see what the charts have to reveal to us.

The weekly chart below had a nice H&S top which broke down and price snapped back towards the neckline only to fail and head back lower once again. Now the status quo is that the price is way below the value zone so an attempt to go back to the MA’s is not ruled out. Adding to this short term bullish argument is the MACD histogram shown in the lower pane, it seems to be tracing a triple bullish divergence. In the last three weeks amid much muck floating around on ICICI BANK the bears haven’t really been able to push the MACD histogram below zero line. The weekly support looks good at 425/435, where as the overhead resistances lay at 550/600/650.

The daily chart below also had a nice H&S continuation pattern which has achieved its logical target. The price is inside the falling channel hinting a drift to the lower end, though right now the price is already hugging the lower channel line and far away from the MA’s, shorting won’t bring in much in way of profits.

My take on ICICI would be since both the weekly and Daily have red impulse bars this only warrants a short trade (and I am not keen on shorting it!), therefore I would wait for the daily bar to turn blue at least for me to take a small swing trade (shoot and scoot types) against the weekly RED bar. A buy above with 515 with a SL, a point below 500 is such one trade!

"If opportunity doesn't knock build a door."

Milton Berle

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Nifty Recap For The Day!!!

It’s been a volatile week so far, much of the action is dependant on how the U.S will implement the bailout plan and what would be the REAL cost of such a bailout plan. Bonfire of the Vanities, yes that’s what’s happening in U.S now, the old financial order has collapsed and a new one must emerge in its place. Change; as they say is PAINFUL and INEVITABLE! I have been busy with my business of late and not able to contribute daily. Plus I also feel that when Nifty gets into the range then it doesn’t contribute much by writing the same levels daily.

The intraday action is summarized in the hourly chart below, we have reclaimed the 20 & 50 periods MA’s and right now the price seems to be nestled between them. The overhead resistance based on the hourly charts is 4000/4050 and 4125/50 whereas the supports are at 3850/3800.

The daily chart has strong resistance at the upper trend line of the channel (it’s also the long term falling trend line from Jan Highs). The ADX is getting stronger and we have +DI below the – DI. 3800 and 4050 seem to be the range as of now, play it if you can!

Don’t learn the Tricks of the Trade. Learn The Trade!!!