Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Nifty Futures Update!!!

If you have read the previous post on NF; I had mentioned a target and also mentioned that it might get support at 5345/60 and might ZZZZZZ again…Yups…a breakdown from the triangle…a retracement back inside the triangle…lead to nothing, but bruised bears and equally confused bulls…

From the chart above you can see that the scenario has changed from yesterday…but the bear battle line still remains breaking and closing below 5370 and the bulls will want to break and hold above 5415…and the pigs just don’t know which way to go other than…chop chop…

Two days back I had read an interesting post by Craig of TAZ trader and to quote him;

“There are three things I know about swing trading and the stock market:

1. You are doomed without a money management strategy.
2. Chart patterns can and will fail no matter how good they look.
3. There will ALWAYS be losing trades.

That knowledge is what has kept me in this game for so long…”

A lot of wisdom in the above words…accept these and trading will become a lot easier!!!

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Nifty Views!!!

My weekend post on Nifty suggested that if aint long then wait and go short near the resistance zone where the risk reward favors the shorts as of now… Anyone who has shorted today has a well defined stop loss in the form a today’s high (a few points above the high is a better idea). Let us take a look at the chart below and see if it’s time to be aggressively short or play this one on merit;

The chart above shows a shooting star at the resistance and Nifty’s inability to close above the previous highs. With a wedge of a formation, and the nearest MA, the 20, way below at approx 5290, Nifty has only one thing left for itself, take support at 5350/60 and meander sideways and enable the 20 periods MA to move up and provide a base as it has done in the past. Profit booking can come in the morning for overnight shorts at the above mentioned support; on the contrary more shorting will emerge if it fails to hold the 5350/60! 
Like I mentioned earlier each trade is needed to be traded on its merit!!!

FII Net Figures Vis a Vis Nifty Update !!!

NF And The Volumes!!!

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Ashok Leyland Views!!!

Ashok Leyland was brought to my notice by a friend who wanted to know if it was a good idea to short the stock as its approaching its all time high... let’s look at its chart and see if we can come to a conclusion… Below is what you see the Daily/Weekly/Hourly charts!

The Bearish argument;

  1. Approaching the all time Highs and stopped at the resistance with a DOJI…
  2. Negative Divergences in all the three charts…
  3. Overbought…
  4. Too far from the nearest Ma on the daily chart…reversion to mean?

The Caveat;

Only one, we have not yet got any confirmation from the price of a reversal. The weekly bar looks pretty mean and bullish…

If at all one needs to short then one can short when it breaks the low of the DOJI (approximately at 69), and the stop should be strictly above the DOJI high…the targets for starters 65…It would be prude to wait for the general market direction and be nimble!

Weekend Views On Nifty!!!