I have been keeping busy now days because of my primary business interests and not been able to post regularly, still doing the best I can. Anyway moving on to the business at hand; quickly and briefly analyzing Miss Nifty!
The weekly chart below shows we have closed just near the 50% retracement of the move from B to C. We have also closed below the long term down trend line made from January highs. 4130/50 look like good weekly supports, below that 4050 is one level to die for, whereas immediate resistances are at 4250/4270/4315.
The daily chart has what now everyone is talking about; a bearish H&S. The neckline near 4200 needs to be violated and we need to close below 4150 for two successive days for the pattern to play to its logical target. It is said that the market does the most expected thing in the least expected way, so will it play the H&S or negate the pattern, or better still frustrate both the bulls and the bears before choosing a direction. Remember patience is the key when forecasting patterns and their play, and more importantly one should always wait for confirmation from the Price! ADX is still flat thought the +DI and – DI lines have started to converge for a crossover. If we open flat or a lil bit negative and trade above 4200 then one can go long with a tight stop below 4150, and if already short then 4320 is a very conservative stop as of now.
Nifty is totally directionless, it’s just doing what the global markets are doing; no internals are working for us as of now. Traders are wary of any aggressive positions, otherwise why we would have a sell off on Friday when our inflation numbers had improved, our IIP numbers were good, during our trading time Asia had closed in plus,
"Life is just a blank slate, what matters most is what you write on it."
Christine Frankland
Hmmm same is with the charts what matters is how you interpret them!!!
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