Sunday, July 6, 2008

Week End Views On Nifty!!!

I had nice little week end with family and friends, now hoping Nifty will treat to an equally good week ahead! Let’s take a peak at the charts and see what lies ahead next week.

First we look at the weekly chart on the extreme right. We have a hammer and we seem to have completed a fib retracement of 161.8% from point A to point B marked on the chart. It indicates (as of the chart this week) we might have made a pivot low for ourselves on the weekly and time for some pullback. On such a scenario the weekly gives us the roadmap as 4050/4160/4250 and for the eternal optimists 4450! For any play on the long side the Stop loss is a few points below the recent low (3848).

Now we move to the Daily chart on the left. We see that we have consistently made Lower Lows and Lower Highs (yes I know we are in down trend!). If we focus our attention to the ellipse I have drawn on the chart, we will see a few interesting things. First of all we have a pivot low followed by a Higher Low. All we need now is to take out the previous Lower High and make ourselves a new Higher High to confirm a temporary shift in the trend to the upside (remember Dow Theory???). Secondly we have an inside bar on Friday (Thursday’s bar is also an Inside Bar). This is showing signs of some coiling waiting to snap in any direction; I suspect to the higher ground because the bias is such. To go long we take the entry on break of the IB top. Incidentally here also 4050 is the main key!

The third chart in the centre is Hourly. Again we have broken a series of Lower Low’s and now waiting to make a Higher High. We have just pecked at the falling trend line signaling some desire to break out. We have a double bottom on the hourly. I suspect that the falling 50 period EMA (blue line) presently at 4075 will provide the price initial resistance and push it back to test once again the comforting hug of the 20 period EMA (green Line) right now at the 3985 where also lies the trend line support.

Rest as they say is QUE SERA SERA!!!

6 comments:

Horseman said...

beloved friend
namaskar
hope u remember me
ur blog is fab buddy
very informative and i am sure u r working really smart, soon u will reach ur goal buddy, keep doing
and do kindly tell me
if u have any program to calculate pivot, camrilla in ms.excel for the nse scripts.
and i will keep visiting ur blog man,
thanks for taking care to share ur views.
love
easwaran
bangalore

My Fav Books on Trading

* The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas
* The Master Swing Trader by Alan Farley
* Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy
* Come Into My Trading Room by Alexander Elder
* Trading For Living By Alexander Elder
* Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns by Thomas.N.Bulkwoasky
* Technical Analysis Explained by Martin.J.Pring

all these books are ebooks are printed ones buddy

Anonymous said...

Nice Writeup mbh.
Keep doing......mbn

Tryin2Trade said...

Easwaran hello
Thanks for ur appreciation.Now to answer your query I dont personally use camarilla pivots or other fancy things.The idea is to see them on charts as pivot highs and lows.I am more into visual analysis of patterns etc than going into mathematical jargon.Its because I am happy keepin things simple and secondly I am very poor in maths.
As for the books I have mentioned are all printed and availble at amazon.Some you might find with vision books.
Regards

Tryin2Trade said...

MBN hi
Yeah man just tryin2see things in right perspective without complicating life to much for me!!!All that talk of GANN,Elliot and ASTRO scares me!!!!

Abhijit said...

Just a bit of nit picking.. its peek and not peak.. :-) Otherwise excellent analysis...

My personal view is as follows - if we sustain 3980 upsides are possible.. breaking 3960 if we don't hold 3900 we'd see it going down to 3725-3750 area. The later seems to be a real possibility 'cos too many people are now counting on a relief rally and "bottoming out" is being a bit common place!! ;-)

Keep the good work man!!

Tryin2Trade said...

Abhijit Hi,
Hey thanks man for the nit picking..spellings have been a problem with me..damn should have paid attention in school! Btw I presume "later" in your comment was meant to be "Latter"...hmm looks like u missed a few English classes too!On serious note Yes your views hold water because the market does the opposite or frustrates you when too many people start seeing the same things!!!
Regards