Weekend Views On Nifty!!!

I have been often referring to Nifty, as Miss Nifty, and boy does it display the traits of a maiden entrapping traders with her guile and charm!!! Remember the good old days when Chivalry was the flavor of the season, if a woman dropped her hat in a ring full of lions the MAN yes I mean the MAN jumped in and retrieved it. In return he got the woman and the rewards. Same is happening with Nifty trading in the last few days, many prospective suitors are served as lunch for the lions(Pros) and a few brave(traders who played by their plans and their STOPS) have come out to claim the rewards. Nifty has been baffling many a analysts last week. Lets dissect the charts and see if we can come up with something for next week.

As usual we start with the weekly chart shown below. A nice hammer with bullish annotations. What's more important is that we have a higher weekly close. Nifty though penetrated the pink horizontal support(4247), managed to reclaim it and now finding resistance at the falling trend line marked on the chart, which incidentally is also the 38.2% Fib retracement from point A to B. This weeks low 4202 was 50% retracement of the move from B to C and also the psychological round number support at 4200. Once again we come back to 4370 which needs to be crossed convincingly for any further up move, and the weekly range still remains between the two pink horizontal lines drawn on the chart. On the flip side any close below 4150 triggers the vicious move to the downside.

The daily chart below has a nice big candle of HOPE! It has tough overhead resistance at 4420, the 20 period MA and then at 4450. The daily is still trapped between the 20 and 50 periods Ma's. Again of noticeable concern is the behaviour of our pal the ADX. Its just fails to tango, and with it at 15, I wonder if Nifty can do much, other than making frustrating moves. We have a new HL in place on the daily chart, many long stops should be resting there. If trading Pivots is your style then breaking of this HL should trigger your short trade.

Finally the Hourly where the action takes place. We have had a nice sequence of LH's and LL's and to reverse this to an uptrend we now need to make a HH by taking the earlier LH at 4398 which suggest a target of 4450. The MA sequence is also nicely lined up, the Price has reclaimed all the three 20/50/200 EMA’s and now needs to hold above them. Since now a days we seem to be following more of the global action and Dow has given a negative close on Friday, so the opening would be a little cautious and inline with how Asia opens and then later Europe. Supports for Nifty are 4315/4280.

"To be a great champion you must believe you are the best. If you're not, pretend you are."

Muhammad Ali