DLF Views!!!

I haven’t seen or traded DLF for a long time, so while analyzing the chart for a friend I was kinda interested in it. The chart below is the daily chart of DLF. First to cry over the spilled milk, O boy what a great short it had given on break of 280. A bearish H&S on both the price and the RSI, negative Divergence on MACD and Bingo as soon as the price broke down from 280(the two ema’s the 20 and the 50 were there!)It was a screaming short! Before someone points out that hindsight is always 20/20 lets move on and see what the status quo as of now is;

The chart above is sufficiently annotated; we have what we call two bottoms in place marked as B1 and B2 with a lengthy divergence on the indicators. The weekly bar (not shown here) is a NR/IB. Anyway no marks for guessing that coz the last 5 days are what seem to be NR/ID’s implying contraction. Speaking of contraction, then expansion by no means is far enough. The price is far below the MA’s so a possible pullback is not ruled out. A break above 199/200 should head for 208 and then eventually 216/18. Till the time we don’t break 232 convincingly with volumes, no point in being bullish on this stock. 180 looks like a good support for DLF as of now.

"If A equals success, then the formula is: A = X+Y+Z. X is work. Y is play. Z is keep your mouth shut." Albert Einstein

Ril Views!!!

Last week RIL has really lead the NIFTY, the relative strength chart below is a clear proof of that.

However the weekly chart of RIL below has some surprises. Interesting resistance is developing at the fib confluence (marked on the chart), there is a bearish crossover of the 20 and the 200 periods MA’s, in short, 1450 and 1500 looks a terrible place! There is a kind of hidden negative divergence in the making here with the indicators moving higher but the price is failing to move with the momentum. RIL needs to protect 1135 at all costs on closing basis infact monthly close better be or has to be above 1135 if one has any bullish fantasies on RIL! I would rather like to see a clear bullish divergence on the weekly MACD before getting gung ho about RIL.

The daily chart below has RIL closing at the 20 periods MA with a strong historical resistance at 1280 staring down at it; this is where incidentally the 50 periods MA is also residing. Any foray to go long in RIL above 1220 should be done with a strict stop at 1180 region, or better still if there is some intraday pullback to 1190/1200 then that would be ideal to play a small swing.

Why I spoke about intraday pullback, because on the hourly chart below we can see the Price stalling at the 200 periods MA along with the 50% fib retracement. Immediate support below is in the form of the 38.2% fib and the 50 periods MA! There is a slight negative divergence in MACD histogram and stoch is already at 90! Personally I would be following RIL next week to see how it plays and where I need to improve upon my analytical skills!

"Continuous effort, not strength or intelligence, is the key to unlocking our potential."

Liane Cordes

Gold Views!

The weekly chart of Gold below shows that though we are still in a structural downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. The recent lower high has to either break the recent low at $680 to confirm further bearishness or taking out $870 convincingly (looking for a triangle breakout here although the last two attempts have failed) will result in interrupting this structural downtrend. $870 is also the 61.8% fib value drawn from the highs of 987 to the lows at $680. No wonder it’s posing as a sissy! There is a confluence of 20 and 50 periods MA’s at $825 and $830 respectively and the 20(green) is trying to cross above the 50(blue) attempting a bullish crossover! Whereas breaking $760 can result in a downside break, and going in for testing of the 200 periods MA and $650 (the red long term trend line drawn from Jan 2002).

The daily chart below paints an interesting picture! The earlier DT formation met with its logical target and bounced back from the 50% retracement. Look at the last bar on the chart its encompassing all the three 20, 50 and 200 periods MA’s! The stoch above is turning up, the RSI has already broken its downtrend line and MACD has also ticked up. The ADX right at the bottom is still listless below 20; maybe it will wake up with the Price breaking $850 and head for that elusive $870! All in all GOLD is interestingly poised… let us see how this plays next week!

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that don't work." Thomas Edison

Humor In Adversity!!!

I am not tryin2b insensitive here with this post. I know things are bad for people who are in middle of this mess. But then there are ways people vent out their anger, some grieve for a long time, some shout obscenities, some get physical, some despair and yet some are who vent it out with wry humor. Life goes on, the pain subsides the scars remain only to remind you of what was once. This was one fellow’s way of venting it out!

Trading Coach A Myth Or A Reality!

I was wondering weather it is necessary to have a trading coach to be a successful and a professional full time trader. If the answer is yes, then what do we look for in a successful coach? Why is it so hard to find a coach in this profession?

I was hoping through this post to initiate a discussion on this topic so everybody’s views and thoughts are welcome. I would appreciate all your comments on this topic and look forward to the readers of this blog to contribute (hey don’t worry I am not asking for money here!) in anyway they can on this thought provoking point. Hoping to hear from you all!

"If we all did things we are capable of doing, we would literally astound ourselves."

Thomas Edison